Mountain Lion Workflow

I bought my first Mac in 1985. Not the first version, but the second, with 512K of memory and an external 400K floppy drive. (My dealings with Apple since have only confirmed my decision to never buy version 1.0.)

Lately I have been watching the iOS-ification of OS X with some nervousness. Apple long ago established a corporate silo for hardware. At one point they allowed other manufacturers to make computers running the Apple OS, and all of a sudden they got cut off. I believe this coincided with Steve Jobs’ return to the company in the 1990s. Now, with their App Stores, they are going in the same direction with software. OS X is not completely walled in yet (and may never be). But App Store apps are privileged and may become more so.

Where does that leave me, a guy who writes a lot of Python scripts to massage and process data from local files and remote sources? Python is not available in the app store. My fears here are perhaps overblown — Apple does feature stories about customers using Python, and one hopes those customers won’t get cut off — like some app developers were by sandboxing.

So far this is all a kind of vague dread about the future, not any specific current problems. But along comes Mountain Lion, where the (again available) Save As feature is broken.

When I write a Python script, I start with one of several template files. The Save dialog box allows you to save files as stationery files. They will then open as new, untitled files instead of under their own name. I have several of these, with different boilerplate depending on the use I intend for them. I open them as untitled files, then save them under their new name and start writing code. Easy. Clean. The question is, how will all this work in Mountain Lion?

My other use case for Save As involves editing photos. I want my files that come from the camera to remain inviolate. But I don’t need or want to turn them all into stationery files. So I will have to use the Duplicate function instead, or disable autosaving. This approach has its own problems.

While checking out the nearest Apple Store, I found that you can ask tech support questions online, saving me a 60 mile one-way trip to the nearest store. If it works as advertised. My question:

In my programming (system 10.6.8) I use stationery files quite a bit — files that open as new, untitled files, containing the boilerplate I need, that I then save as a descriptive name. My understanding is that “Save As”, when run in conjunction with autosave, is broken, saving the changes in the original file as well. My question is, (a) do I understand this correctly, (b) do stationery files still exist in Mountain Lion, and (c) are they subject to the same problem as ordinary files?

But note that an answer costs money: $28 for a low urgency, low detail response; $78 for high in each category, and their are middle levels too. Oh, well, with gas and mileage on the Prius for a 120 mile round trip, the cash expense might be a wash, but I still save several hours. $28 it is. Also, it is not Apple answering these questions, but JustAnswer.

This is the first post in what I expect to be a series documenting my decision to stop buying Macs after 27 years, and my experiences with Linux instead.

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Time, and Moore’s Law, march on

I remember when 1 TB was considered the same order of magnitude as the sum total of human knowledge. A few decades later, you can buy it for a hundred bucks.

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Psychedelic Actor’s Blues

Purple haze, it’s in my cream.
Lately things … Seem off the beam.
I’m feeling different and I don’t know why …
Scuse me, while I moisturize.

Purple haze, it’s in my script.
Learning it … Got me oh so ripped.
Must have been something on the page …
Scuse me, while I kiss the stage.

Purple haze, it’s in the air.
Audience  … Gives up screams and cheers.
Curtain falling and I feel so fine …
Is it curtain call or just the end of time?

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You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows

But it would be handy to have this Wind Map.

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Nook: the first 20,000 minutes

A couple of weeks ago I bought a Nook. Primarily because I was looking for a copy of David Graeber’s “Debt” and Barnes and Noble didn’t have it. And then I remembered being on a plane with my big thick book and everyone around me had their tablet or Kindle or whatever — much smaller. So, I got one. And the book.

And now I see extensive commentary on it: Seminar on Debt: The First 5000 Years – Reply — Crooked Timber.

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CBOE – Micro Site

CBOE – Micro Site. Home of the CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index with a manually downloadable file of historical data to 2007. More information at investingwithoptions.com.

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Slowpoke Traders Look to Gain Ground on Speedsters – WSJ.com

Slowpoke Traders Look to Gain Ground on Speedsters – WSJ.com.

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Time Warner Fail

Time Warner Fail

How dare you use Chrome for a browser!

What is so complicated about showing me my friggin’ bill?

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Conversation with my Senator

Dear Kirsten:

I’m confused. In your letter, you seem to acknowledge the severe constitutional problems with this bill, and the need to change it to address those problems. But the fact that you are a cosponsor says that you are happy with it the way it is.

Please clarify: will you vote to deprive people of their property without due process of law, if that provision is still in the bill when it comes to a vote? Or not?

Amos

On Thu, Nov 3, 2011 at 15:12, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand <Senator@gillibrand.senate.gov> wrote:

November 3, 2011

Dear Amos,

Thank you for writing to me regarding S. 968, the PROTECT IP Act of 2011.  I understand your concerns.

I am a cosponsor of this legislation because I believe that we must protect American intellectual property against foreign websites that infringe upon our rights.  By empowering the Attorney General of the United States to go after foreign infringing websites, this legislation becomes a necessary tool to ensure that U.S. companies remain competitive in the world marketplace.  I recognize that there are technical concerns with the enforcement of this bill that need to be addressed.  I am committed to working with my colleagues in the United States Senate to ensure that this legislation protects the Constitutional rights of Americans and does not stifle lawful free speech or innovation on the internet.

Thank you again for writing to express your concerns, and I hope that you keep in touch with my office regarding future legislation. For more information on this and other important issues, please visit my website at http://gillibrand.senate.gov and sign up for my e-newsletter.

Sincerely,

Kirsten E. Gillibrand
United States Senator

I’ll post further correspondence if/when I get it. Google this bill.

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Yield curve

An interesting article talks about the yield curve as a predictor of recessions. For various reasons (Wikipedia seems thorough on the subject) long term interest rates are usually higher than short term ones, except near the onset of recessions.

The NY Fed devotes a page to the yield-curve as a leading indicator, complete with a monthly data set back to January 1959, and charts. Indeed the correlation is impressive to the eye. If the indicator is yield curve crosses below zero, then that data shows a false negative in 1960, a false positive in 1968, and seven true positives with no false predictions since then. Other ways to use it are linked from the Fed page.

The 10-yr vs. 3-mo spread has dropped by almost half in 18 months, but is still well above zero by historical standards. Are we safe from a recession then? As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future results. The zero lower bound on rates, which the short term is close to, means that the curve will not go (more than trivially) negative, independently of any possible recession. No theory accounts for this, and so the theory may be broken here if we rely on it to feel safe from recession. OTOH, the recent drop in long term rates is not “organic”, but manipulated by the Fed’s Operation Twist, so even the dropping rates are not necessarily a danger signal.

The Fed goes further than just the spread, but derives a “probability of recession” signal from it. Zero for a positive infinite spread, one for a negative infinite spread, and in between is a (reversed) cumulative gaussian distribution with a mean of -53 basis points and a “standard deviation” of -.63. This whole enterprise seems so bogus that I am not even interested in the details. But the graph shows it to be a lagging indicator more than a leading one.

Conclusions:

  • Don’t rely on the yield curve to follow its usual statistics at the zero lower bound
  • The “probability of recession” from the NY Fed is a noise calculation, manufactured to impress the noise traders.
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